It's tournament week, which means every dad with a folding chair and a thermos of coffee has a bracket theory. Aunt Linda is texting screenshots. The kid at the lumberyard has takes. Some guy at Hannaford explained to me, unprompted, why his nephew's team is "definitely making regionals." Cool. Love that for him.
Here's the thing about Maine in June. Everyone has an opinion. Most of them are vibes. Some of them are loyalty. A small number are based on the actual Heal Points standings, and an even smaller number are based on whether the team has, you know, scored runs lately.
We already did the math. It lives on one page. It updates every night. Let's talk about it.
What The Page Shows
Bracketology is the projected MPA tournament bracket for every class in every active spring sport. Not a take. Not a hunch. The whole field, drawn out, with numbers attached to every line.
Right now that means:
- Baseball: Class A, B, C, D - Girls softball: Class A, B, C, D - Boys lacrosse: Class A, B, C - Girls lacrosse: Class A, B, C
Each class gets its own page. Each page shows every round. Prelim play-ins where they apply, quarterfinals, semifinals, regional final, state final. Top of the bracket to the trophy.
On every projected matchup you get three things from GameIQ: a win probability for each team, a projected final score, and the projected winner sitting in the next slot. On every team in the field, you get a state title percentage. That last number is the one people screenshot.
State title odds come from running the projected bracket forward over and over and counting how often each team ends up holding the plate. Not a guess. Not a gut read. The math, done a lot of times, then summarized in one number per team.
How To Read A Projected Slot
Two things to know before you start yelling at your phone.
First, the via-prelim flag. When a team is sitting in a quarterfinal slot but only gets there if they win a play-in game first, the slot is badged. The projected name is shown, because GameIQ has a favorite to win that prelim, but the badge tells you the slot is contingent. If the prelim flips, the QF opponent flips, and the cascade downstream changes with it. Worth knowing before you tattoo the bracket on your forearm.
Second, the projected bracket is not a promise. It is the most likely path through the field as of right now. Real tournaments have upsets. A 7 over a 2 reshapes everything past it. That is the whole fun of the thing.
Which is why Bracketology rebuilds every night. Refreshed Heal Points seeding, any games that finished in the last 24 hours folded in. The cascade rebuilds from whatever the new reality is. As prelim winners get crowned this week, the projected name in the QF gets replaced by the actual winner, and the projected QF win probability gets replaced by the actual final score when that game completes. The page walks itself from projection to results in real time.
You are not looking at a prediction frozen in amber. You are looking at the current best guess, with the freedom to be wrong, and the discipline to update when it is.
What The Page Looks Like Right Now
Spring 2026 has a clear king of the hill. Maranacook/Winthrop girls lacrosse, 45.7 percent to win Class C. That is the biggest single-class state title number in any spring sport this year. Nobody else in any class in any sport is close to that. When GameIQ likes you that much in June, it means the math has watched you play and run out of polite ways to say "yeah, them."
In baseball, the big number belongs to Washington Academy at 33.1 percent in Class C. Highest baseball figure across all four classes. Nobody in A, B, or D is sitting where they are.
In softball, Cheverus leads at 26.7 percent in Class A. Top softball figure on the board.
And then there's Class A baseball, which is a knife fight. Oxford Hills 18.8, Mount Ararat 18.2, Gorham 18.1. Three teams inside a single percentage point of each other at the top. You could fit all three on the head of a pin. Whoever draws the friendly side of the bracket has a real case to be there at the end, and the page will tell you who that is the minute seeds drop.
One mover worth flagging: Wells boys lacrosse jumped from GameIQ's number two in C boys lacrosse to number one since the start of the week. The math noticed. The bracket reflects it.
How To Use It
Bookmark your class. Each class bracket has its own permalink, so you do not have to dig. Coaches, parents, the booster who runs the snack shack, all of you can land directly on the page you care about and ignore the other eleven.
Watch the line move. The state title percentage on your team is going to wiggle this week. Every completed game, every locked-in prelim winner, every refreshed Heal Points line shifts the cascade. If your number went up, somebody else's went down. That is how the math eats.
Cross reference with the rest of the site. Bracketology is linked from every team page, so your team's projected bracket spot is one click away. It is linked from Slate when an upcoming game has tournament implications, so you know when a Tuesday matters. It gets cited by Report Card when we grade past predictions, because the bracket math should have to show its work after the fact too. And if you want to nerd out on a single projected matchup, Matchup Lab is right there.
This is the bracket before the bracket. The MPA will print the official one. We are showing you, every night, what the most likely version of that printed bracket looks like, and how every team's odds change as the games actually happen. It is not magic. It is just the math, run honestly, updated relentlessly, and handed to you in a format you can actually use.
Print it. Argue with it. Check it tomorrow. It will have changed.
LETS GO!!!