Dexter has won two of its five soccer games this fall, but the goals the 8-Person side has scored and allowed suggest the record should read closer to four wins than two.
That is the gap between what a team does and what it earns. Dexter's Pythagorean win rate, a measure built from goals scored and goals given up, sits near 76 percent, while the actual mark is 2-3, about 40 percent. GameIQ, the site's rating system, has the team well above where the standings place them, with a Power Index Rating of 69.6.
When a side plays this well by the underlying numbers and shows a losing record, the usual reading is that a few close results have not fallen its way. Regression toward those numbers would mean the wins start to match the play: the same soccer, better outcomes. On the goal math, that is about two more wins waiting to be collected.