Mountain Valley's goal numbers suggest the team should have about 2 more wins than its record shows, a gap worth watching in Class C.
The Cavaliers sit at 2-1, roughly 60 percent. But the Pythagorean win rate, a measure built from goals scored and goals allowed, puts them closer to 74 percent. GameIQ, the site's overall rating, has Mountain Valley well above where the standings place them, with a Power Index Rating of 16.7.
What that adds up to is a team playing better than its record. When a side scores and defends the way Mountain Valley has, the wins tend to follow over time. That is positive regression: not a promise, just the pull of the underlying numbers toward the results a team has earned on the field.
If the goal difference holds, the record should start to look more like it.