Football has a prediction model on Analytics207.com for the first time. Every remaining game on the 2026 schedule, 206 of them, now carries a win probability and a projected score before it is played, and every one of those predictions is public before kickoff and graded afterward against exactly what it said.
Football was the last fall sport without one. Soccer, field hockey and volleyball have been predicted and graded all season. Football was not, which is why it has never appeared on the Report Card.
How it does
On the 111 games already played this season, the GameIQ has called 73.9 percent of winners. For scale, picking the home team every single week gets you 57.7 percent.
That number should climb. The model is at its worst in September, when it has barely seen anyone play, and at its best in November. Run against the full 2025 season, it called 79.8 percent from week four onward, once it had enough football to work with. The 73.9 percent is three weeks of the hardest part of the year.
What it is not
The projected score is a rough guide. Maine high school football produces a lot of 40 point margins and the model misses the final spread by about 19 points on average. The win probability is the number worth reading. When it says a team is 90 percent to win, that team wins about 94 percent of the time. When it says 80 to 90 percent, it is right about 83 percent of the time.
It does not know that your quarterback is hurt. It does not know it is going to rain sideways in Houlton. It knows who has beaten whom, by how much, and how good those opponents were.
Every pick is on the schedule now. Every one gets graded. Tell us when it is wrong.
More from Analytics207: This week's picks · Every call, graded