Meet The Karma Index. The Pythagorean luck tracker that knows your team's regression is coming. If you are 5-1 with a -8 run differential, we see you. If you are 1-5 with a +12 run differential, we see you too. The standings can lie for a couple of weeks. The math eventually catches up. The Karma Index is the page that tells you how big the gap is right now.
What is Pythagorean luck?
Bill James figured this out in baseball decades ago. The Pythagorean expectation says: given a team's runs scored and runs allowed, here is roughly how many games they SHOULD have won. Compare that to how many games they actually won. The gap is luck. Or skill, depending on the sport and how clutch the team is. Either way, the gap is information.
Real numbers, current season. Falmouth boys lacrosse 2-0, expected win rate 97 percent based on goal differential. They should be exactly where they are. Maranacook/Winthrop girls 2-0, expected win rate 99.9 percent. They are a half goal allowed per game team. They are not going anywhere bad anytime soon. Compare that to a team sitting at 4-2 with a -3 run differential. The math thinks they are closer to a 3-3 team, and the next loss is going to feel earned.
Per sport, the math is the same.
Baseball and softball use runs. Lacrosse uses goals. Hockey would use goals too. The formula is identical. Square the goals (or runs) for, divide by the sum of the squared for and squared against, multiply by games played. That is the expected wins number. Subtract from actual wins to get the luck number.
The page sorts every team in the active sport by luck. Most lucky at the top (overperforming the math). Most unlucky at the bottom (underperforming the math). Both lists are interesting. The lucky teams are due for regression. The unlucky teams are due for a bounce.
Why this is sticky.
Two reasons. First, every fan thinks their team is either better or worse than the standings say. The Karma Index is a check on that. If your team is two games ABOVE Pythagorean, your gut feeling is wrong. If your team is two games BELOW, your gut might be right. Second, this is the only page that gives you an honest read on whether a hot start is real. Three wins in a row against bad opponents who you outscored by a single run each time? The math sees that. The standings do not.
Most useful in late April through mid May, the back half of the regular season, when the standings are in motion and a coach is trying to figure out whether their team's hot week was a fluke or a real change. The Karma Index will tell you. Painfully.
How to read it.
Lucky teams (top of the page). Teams whose record is BETTER than the math expects. The good news is they are winning. The bad news is the underlying numbers say they should be losing more. A regression is mathematically due. Coaches: this is your warning to keep grinding, the schedule does not care about your record.
Unlucky teams (bottom of the page). Teams whose record is WORSE than the math expects. The good news is the underlying numbers are good. The bad news is they are not converting. A bounce is mathematically due. Coaches: this is your reminder that the close losses are real and the team is closer to good than the standings say.
Middle of the page. Teams whose record matches the math. These are the honest standings. What you see is what you have.
The serious part.
Pythagorean luck is not a fancy stat. It is a sanity check. It does not tell you whether the team is good. It tells you whether the team's record matches the team's actual play. That is a useful thing to know in week six of a ten week season. It is an even more useful thing to know in the week before the bracket release.
Now go check whether your team is overdue for a bad week.