Analytics207's new Bracketology board went live Sunday for soccer, field hockey, volleyball and football. Every night, the gremlins play out the rest of the regular season 10,000 times and count how often each team makes the tournament, where it lands in the seeding, and how far it goes from there.
Each game left on the schedule is decided by GameIQ's call for that matchup. After every simulated game, the standings are rebuilt the way the tournament is seeded, with Heal Points for soccer, field hockey and volleyball and the Crabtree rating for football. Then the field is cut, the top seeds take their byes, and the playoffs are played to the state final. The percentages on the board are simply how often each thing happened.
As of Sunday, 102 teams sit between 10 and 90 percent to make the field: 56 in soccer, 13 in field hockey, 15 in volleyball and 18 in football.
One spot, two teams, Saturday in Houlton
Four of the five teams in 8-Man Large North make the field. Old Town and Ellsworth/Sumner are in every simulation and Mount Desert Island is in 99 percent of them, which leaves one spot for two teams. Waterville (1-4) is fourth today with a Crabtree index of 74.5. Houlton/Hodgdon/SA/GHCA (0-5) is fifth at 70.8. They meet Saturday at Houlton, and the simulations send Houlton through about six times in ten.
After Saturday, Waterville goes to Old Town on Oct. 16 and hosts Washington Academy on Oct. 24. Houlton plays at Mount Desert Island on Oct. 17 and at Cape Elizabeth on Oct. 24. The gremlins have now played Saturday's game 10,000 times and would still like to see the real one.
Class A North's last spot
Eight of 11 teams make the field in boys soccer Class A North. Bangor (3-5-2) is seventh and in 92 percent of the simulations. Mount Ararat (3-5-1) holds eighth today, but Hampden Academy (3-5-2), ninth today, makes the field more often, 67 percent of the time to Mount Ararat's 38. Hampden hosts Bangor on Tuesday and Mount Ararat on Oct. 16.
This is where What If earns its keep. Set Hampden to win its last four games and it makes the field every time, while Mount Ararat falls to 9 percent. Flip it so Hampden loses all four, and Hampden misses every time while Mount Ararat climbs to 94 percent.
Unbeaten, and most likely fourth
Piscataquis Community is 11-0 and second in boys 8-Person North today. It also has three games left, the fewest in the region, while Wisdom and Bucksport, both 6-2, have six apiece. Heal Points grow with every win, so the simulations most often have Piscataquis finishing fourth, and third or fourth in eight of ten. Mattanawcook (7-0), with seven games left, finishes first in every one.
What is free
Who makes it is free for everyone: each team's chance to make the field, its likely seed, and its odds of a bye and a home game. Title odds, round by round odds, What If, what every remaining game is worth and who to root for come with All Access.
The board rebuilds every night as results come in. Find it under Bracketology in the menu, or start with this week's play-in games at the top of the front page.