We have a confession. While everyone else was watching highlight reels and reading message board takes, we were here at Analytics207 HQ running 10,000 bracket simulations, crunching set differentials, and arguing about sweep rates at 11pm on a Tuesday. We are not normal. We are okay with that. And the Maine high school volleyball season gave us a lot to be abnormal about.
Here is what the numbers have to say.
The Report Card: We Called 86.78% of Games Correctly
GameIQ went 315 for 363 this season. That is not a typo. 86.78% accuracy across every game we had data for. But here is where it gets silly good: when our spread said a match would be decided by 2 to 3 sets, we hit 100% of those calls. 92 games. Perfect. And when our confidence level sat between 80 and 89%, we went 116 for 116. One hundred. Sixteen. For. One hundred. Sixteen.
We are not saying GameIQ is always right. We are saying when it is really sure, you should probably listen.
Scarborough Is Not Playing Around
Let us talk about the team with the best championship odds in Class A: Scarborough. They ended the regular season 13 and 1, carrying a Power Index Rating of 72.1, and our simulator puts their odds of winning a state championship at 54.2%. In a class with multiple serious contenders, that is a significant margin. More than half the simulations ended with Scarborough hoisting hardware. The data is not subtle about this one.
Washington Academy and York Are Having None of It
Meanwhile in Class B, two programs are sending a clear message. Washington Academy finished 13 and 1 with a PIR of 73.6 and a sweep rate of 93%. That means they are winning in three sets more than nine times out of ten. They are not interested in going five sets. They would like to go home early and they would like to win first.
York is right there with them at 13 and 1 and a PIR of 72.8. Class B might be the most interesting bracket in the tournament. Two teams both north of 72 PIR, both 13 and 1. Someone is going home disappointed and we are already sorry about it.
Narraguagus: Undefeated and Playing Everybody
Narraguagus went 14 and 0. Fourteen wins. Zero losses. They have a 71% sweep rate and a PIR of 69.5. But here is what separates them from teams that go undefeated against soft schedules: their strength of schedule sits at 0.634. They were not hiding. They were winning against real competition all season long.
If you are sleeping on Narraguagus in Class D, the data would like to have a word with you.
The Five Set Specialists (A Love Letter to Chaos)
Not every team wants to sweep. Some teams come alive when the match goes to a fifth set. Bonny Eagle, Jonesport Beals, and Falmouth were all perfect in five set matches this season. 100% win rate when things went the distance. That is a different kind of toughness and it shows up in the numbers.
The average sweep rate across all 52 teams we tracked was 55.7%. That means a little over half of all wins this season were 3 and 0 clean sweeps. Maine volleyball is not afraid of a dogfight but the elite teams tend to end things quickly.
Thornton Academy Has the Schedule Nobody Wanted
Every year there is one team that just had to play everyone. This year that team was Thornton Academy, who carried the toughest schedule in the state with a strength of schedule score of 0.665. Playing the hardest schedule in Maine and still competing says something. The numbers notice even when the wins do not always follow.
Coming Next: The Depth of Schedule Index
For our other sports we publish the DSI, the Depth of Schedule Index, which goes nine layers deeper than a standard strength of schedule number. It accounts for opponent quality, opponent schedule quality, game location, margin of victory context, and more. It is the metric that tells you not just who you played but how hard your entire path really was.
Volleyball is getting it next season. We spent year one building the data foundation: collecting every result, running the bracket simulations, calibrating the prediction engine. Year two is where DSI comes in and things get really interesting. We cannot wait to show you what it looks like when we have a full season of layered data to work with.
The Power Index Rating: What It Is and Why It Matters
Our PIR is not win percentage dressed up in a tuxedo. It accounts for who you beat, how convincingly you beat them, and the quality of your opponents opponents. A team can be 12 and 2 with a mediocre PIR if those wins came against weak schedules. A team can be 10 and 4 and have a strong PIR if they were battling top competition all season.
It is the difference between knowing a team is good and knowing why they are good.
We Are Not Stopping
Volleyball was our newest addition this fall and we threw everything at it. Report cards. Championship odds. Power ratings for all 52 teams. Sweep rates. Five set records. Strength of schedule. Bracket simulations. We are already thinking about what we add next season.
These are high school athletes. They wake up early, stay late, travel across the state, and compete at a level that does not get nearly enough attention. We think they deserve better than a box score that disappears by morning. So we are here building the thing that does not disappear.
See you at states.